On the surface it is easy to assume that the global oil calculation is just a simple matter of cumulative volumetric mathematics. In other words, calculate the size of oil deposits globally, add them all up, and there you are: the magical global oil figure. Factor in the oil that’s been used to date and the projected future demand curves, plot them out on some graph paper and not only will you get the Oil Peak but also the year when theoretically there will be none left. Unfortunately, like many things in life, it’s just not that straightforward. In fact it would be fair to say that the whole business is extremely complex and is far from a simple mathematical calculation.

But the complexity just doesn’t end there. What one also has to consider are the political and economic parameters that are factored into declared oil reserves. Further, one needs to take into account possible technological developments or advancements, both in the oil industry and in associated energy technology generally. Add to this unconventional oil deposit scenarios, mix in a healthy dollop of the misinformation that exists in the public domain and one then starts to realise just why there is so much confusion out there.

Much of the confusion that surrounds the Peak Oil debate is the result that many people do not fully understand how reserve calculations are made or indeed the principles behind them. Cutting down to basics one can consider that an oil reserve is fundamentally a measure of geological and economic risk. In other words that there is a probability that the oil exists and that it can be produced using the available technology and within pre-defined economic thresholds. That there are other factors, other than just the size of an oil reservoir, that determines whether or not it will be classified as a reserve, is crucial in understanding the peak oil debate. For example if an oil deposit is calculated as being too expensive to develop, or is in a politically unstable and unworkable area, or the oil is not of the right quality or perhaps it is in an overly hostile environment, it will most likely not be recorded as a ‘bookable reserve’ as it would be prohibitively expensive or technologically difficult to get out of the ground. It’s not that the oil doesn’t exist, it’s just that the conditions are not right to extract it. In other words, the economics of oil are as important as geology in coming up with reserve estimates, since a proven reserve is one that can be developed economically. Oil reserves that sit below this economic threshold are not developed and undeveloped reserves are not listed as proven reserves.

It is worthwhile at this stage to differentiate between conventional and unconventional oil as it is key to the Peak Oil debate. Conventional oil is principally the crude oil, condensate and natural gas liquids that we hear about all the time and which have historically formed the bulk of the oil that we use. Unconventional oil covers the heavy oils, tar sands, oil shale, deepwater and polar oil. Unconventional oil deposits have, for several reasons, tended to be excluded from bookable reserves although recently Alberta’s oil-sand deposits, (as a consequence of improved technology) were added to Canada’s proven reserves, thereby elevating Canada as the nation with the second highest reserves (proved reserves: 1,266 Bbo = Billion barrels oil) of “conventional” oil after Saudi Arabia. Peak oil calculations tend not to use unconventional oil reserves.

What is obvious from the available literature and data is that the planet’s proven oil resources are in debate. Certainly there is considerable disagreement amongst authors, institutions and industry on just where we stand with regard to the peak and perhaps we should not be surprised by this as there is much at stake. The fall out from this data chaos makes any micro assessment meaningless, though at this stage, few people doubt that a peak in world conventional oil production will occur; it is really only a matter of when it will occur.

Condensing the conventional oil numbers down, there are two schools of thought. On the one hand we have United States Geological Survey (USGS) and a number of aligned organizations claiming that ultimately there is around 3000 Bbo of exactable conventional oil. On the other hand we have academics and others, such as Colin Campbell and Ken Deffeyes, who estimate that the figure is (i.e. extractable conventional oil) more likely to be around 2000Bbo. As it is generally accepted that the world has consumed around 1000 Bbo it is easy to see how the Peak Oil debate is now centre stage. Obviously if you sit with the USGS we have consumed only 1/3 of the exactable conventional oil, however if you agree with Mr. Campbell et al we are at the half way point or at the Peak. The consequences of both schools of thought are significant to say the least.

In conclusion proven reserve data should be treated for just what they are and should not be regarded as sacrosanct. New technologies may be developed to tap into unconventional oil deposits such as Orinoco heavy crude or increase the production in Alberta. Whether these or other developments become proven reserves and push out the peak who can tell. Ultimately it will require a combination of factors, initiatives and technological advances plus a major mind shift to wean us off of our oil dependency. One should not forget that it is not oil per se, or the lack of it, that is the problem, it is our dependency on a readily available, versatile and cheap energy source, to fuel our unsustainable way of life. That is the issue.

Mini Bio: Dr Patrick Buck is Chairman of the Lee Valley Ecolabel Project, Macroom, Co Cork. Amongst the aims of the organisation are to foster an appreciation of and responsibility for the unique aspects of local natural, built and cultural environment; Promote introduction of environmental management practices and standards; Reduce environmental impacts arising from enterprise/community development. They are developing an Eco-labelling concept as the core development driver in the Lee Valley and seek to use local heritage and culture to foster pride in local landscape and farming traditions, as well as enhance through restoration, key components of local environment and landscape such as dry stone walling, paint finishes, hedging, etc. Tel 026 41221